Spatial Assessment of Soil Erosion and Aridity in Somalia Using the CORINE Model

Articles / May 19,2026

Abdiaziz Hassan Nur

Department of Agricultural Extension, Hajee Mohammed Danesh Science and Technology University, Dinajpur-5200, Bangladesh.

Abdinasir Abdullahi Mohamed

Faculty of Agriculture, Zamzam University of Science and Technology Mogadishu, Somalia.

Ali Hussein Ahmed

Faculty of Agriculture, Zamzam University of Science and Technology Mogadishu, Somalia.

Abstract

This study analyzed precipitation patterns, drought conditions, erosivity indices, and arid periods in Somalia using the CORINE model. Utilizing rainfall and temperature data from 50 meteorological stations collected between 2011 and 2019, the study calculated key indices: The Fournier Precipitation Index (35.70%), the Bagnouls-Gaussen Drought Index (61.36), and the erosivity index. The results revealed notable spatial variability in erosivity and aridity across Somalia. Northwestern regions, encompassing 204,978.65 km² (32.14% of the total area), exhibit low erosivity due to reduced rainfall intensity, while southern regions, spanning 252,341.11 km² (39.56%), face high erosivity driven by frequent and intense rainfall events. The study also identified significant arid conditions, with 61.36% of Somalia’s land classified as “dry” and 38.64% as “very dry,” highlighting widespread water scarcity and vulnerability. These findings underscore Somalia’s environmental challenges, including severe soil degradation, reduced agricultural productivity, and the exacerbation of droughts due to climate change. The integration of the Modified Fournier Index and the Bagnouls-Gaussen Index within the CORINE model provides a comprehensive assessment of the country’s susceptibility to erosion and aridity. This research offers critical insights for prioritizing areas that require urgent soil conservation and improved land-use management. It also serves as a vital tool for policymakers and international organizations aiming to mitigate the adverse impacts of climate change, enhance agricultural sustainability, and promote ecological resilience in Somalia’s diverse landscapes.